It's been hot as we've moved from September into October! While not unusual, this last week was well above normal for this time of the year. The big difference from mid-Summer is the angle of the sun and the length of the days. With the sun at a lower angle and the days shorter it wasn't as hot as it could have been. Some Sacramento Valley temperatures still made it above 100 but it stayed mostly comfortable here in Olympic Valley and around Lake Tahoe. October is a transition month that can bring anything from hot weather to a taste of Fall, but it's usually in that comfort spot right in the middle. Fall also brings more ups and downs in the temperatures, one week it's unusually hot and the next week it's just the opposite. Looks like that will be happening later this weekend and early next week.
I wrote about some early season weather outlooks in a previous blog, Pre-season Football and August snow, has me wondering what this Winter will be like? There were some very favorable predictions from Accuweather.com and the Climate Prediction Center for colder than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for late Fall and early Winter. Now that we're into the regular NFL season and the real Refs are back (yay!) there is another outlook for Late Fall, Early Winter temperatures from the Weather Channel that also looks very exciting for us. In their early look at the Winter forecast, the late fall and early winter temperature forecast (October-December) shows that the US will see a fairly even mix of below-average and above-average temperatures depending on where you live. Guess where the below average temperatures are? Yep, the West, especially the West Coast. The Weather Channel predicts it to be cooler than the 1981-2010 historical average for us for all 3 months and much below for the North West down to the California border. While they don't show precipitation in this report, Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows improved snow making equipment needs nothing more than cold air to produce fluffy white powder in case Mother Nature doesn't cooperate.
The article went on to quote Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford of Weather Services International (WSI), a part of The Weather Channel Companies, "The strongest, current climate signal is the cold North Pacific Ocean, otherwise known as the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This signal typically helps drive cooler weather in the western U.S. and warmer temperatures in the eastern U.S. during late fall and early winter,". While we're in an El Nino year, it's weakening and Dr. Crawford feels the PDO will be the major influence in our early Winter weather. The other wild card that has played a role in recent past Winters is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This can only be predicted a few weeks before it's effect so it's a little too early to tell how this may influence the weather. As Dr. Crawford says, "It is still too early to predict the behavior of the NAO for the upcoming winter, but it is clearly the key to a successful winter forecast. For now, we are relying on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation signal, which generally suggests a cool period for the western U.S. and a mild period in much of the East." Read the full article in Late Fall, Early Winter temperatures from the Weather Channel and think snow!
Looking for something to do to celebrate Fall? There's no shortage!
Celebrate fall with Harvest Festival
The eighth annual Harvest Festival in Tahoe City includes Scarecrows on Parade from Oct. 1 to 31, exhibits at North Tahoe Arts Center throughout the month and the annual Oktoberfest celebrations, along with a German Wine Tasting, on Oct. 6. The Scarecrow 5K and 10K Sprint & Stroll will be held on Oct. 13, followed by the Zombie Pub Craw that evening. The Gatekeeper’s Ghost Walk will be on Oct. 18, with the Felt-A-Pumpkin workshop for arts and crafts lovers on Oct. 20 at North Tahoe Arts Center. See events for details or go to visittahoecity.com.
Cobblestone Oktoberfest - Tahoe City
Oct 6, 2012 (Sat) 1 pm - 4 pm
Cobblestone Oktoberfest Beer, Brats, Live Music, Stein Hoisting, Wiener Toss, Pumpkin Painting & More Cobblestone Center, Tahoe City 1-4 pm German Wine Tasting UnCorked Wine & Cheese Shop Cobblestone Center 1-4 pm
Big Blue Adventure Truckee River Trail Run
Saturday, October 6, 2012 - 12:00
Get your juices flowing by running to Squaw from Tahoe City. This 7.9 mile course travels alongside the Truckee River, starting at Commons Beach. It then heads on to finish in the heart of the Village At Squaw Valley. Enjoy spectacular views along this stunning scenic corridor. This run is perfect for all abilities.
Register at bigblueadventure.com
8:30am-9:30am: Check-in/Registration at the Salomon Store at The Village at Squaw Valley
9:30-9:45am: Shuttle runs to Commons Beach in Tahoe City
10am: Race Start at Commons Beach
Fall on the Flume Trail Hike
Oct 6, 2012 (Sat) 8:00am
Fall is the best time to hike the Flume Trail and enjoy fall colors above Lake Tahoe. This hike will climb up steep Tunnel Creek Road, but the views will be worth it as we follow the rolling terrain on the Flume Trail. We will turn around when the group has had its fill of the beauty.
Second Annual Harvest Festival at Resort at Squaw Creek
Oct 5, (Fri) - Oct 14, 2012 (Sun)
Oct 6, (Sat) - Oct 16, 2012 (Tue)
Oct 7, (Sun) - Oct 17, 2012 (Wed)
Oct 8, 2012 (Mon)
Oct 9, 2012 (Tue)
Oct 10, 2012 (Wed)
Oct 11, 2012 (Thu)
Oct 12, 2012 (Fri)
Oct 13, 2012 (Sat)
Oct 14, 2012 (Sun)
Featuring bluegrass music, hayrides, pumpkin painting, pie-eating contests, pumpkin bowling, glow ball golf and other games, autumn-themed spa treatments, a beer garden with live music, fall-flavored dining specials in Sandy’s Pub and in Six Peaks Grille, the festival offers something for the entire family. Special lodging/packages available.
Live Music with Steve & Chuck - Gar Woods Oktoberfest Trail Run ~ Big Blue Adventure, Tahoe City to Squaw Valley USA
Snowfest! Scarecrow Sprint & Stroll
Oct 13, 2012 (Sat) 9:00 am
5k, 10k and 2 smaller Kids' Fun Runs Costumes encouraged for event Starts and ends at Commons Beach Pre-Registration on-line @ www.tahoesnowfest.com Prizes for Costumes and Run Results at Bridgetender, 12:30 Starts at Commons Beach 11 am
No one can predict what this Winter will be like but there are some hopeful early signs. In the mean time, enjoy Fall! Keep up to date with all that's happening at Olympic Village Inn and Olympic Valley by "Liking" our Facebook page. Have great week!